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黑天鹅效应 Black swan theory


If we do not act now, by year 2100, sea level could have risen between 1m to 4m.





The black swan theory or theory is a metaphor developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to describe an event that will occur with a major effect, but its occurrence is rare and is beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.

During the Partners for the Environment Forum which took place on July 2019, Mr Masagos, Minister for the Environment and Water Resources used the metaphor of ‘black swan’ to bring the attention to the consequences of sea level rise in 2100 and explain the effect of the sea level rise, which is predicted to be around 1 metre through scientific research, to the people of Singapore.

Mr Masagos also highlighted that if ice sheets melt more rapidly and, worse, if ice shelves in Antarctica were to collapse, sea levels could reach one metre even earlier, or go even higher.

Mr Masagos urged us to act now as climate science told us it is not a matter of ‘if’ the sea level will rise but a matter of ‘when’ and ‘how much’. We must be prepared to invest to improve on our ability to protect Singapore against sea level rise together as a nation.

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